The Liberal Democrats continue to decline in the polls, now down to 15% according to Yougov for The Sun. This has been interpreted as due to an exodus of left-wing LibDem voters turned-off by the fiscal sanity of the Coalition government, of which the LibDems are a part.
I don’t vote LibDem, I vote Conservative but I want the Coalition to succeed and that requires the LibDems to avoid decimation at future elections. Whilst it is likely that they will lose seats which they are contesting with Labour, they should hold there own in contests with the Conservatives, although this assumption completely ignores how being in coalition affects this dynamic.
I’m not losing sleep though, because as I describe here and here, the number of LibDem seats is weakly negatively correlated with their share of the vote – i.e. more votes, fewer seats.
Posted by Pete Collins 
